What rising shot totals and 1.4 mins extra playing time means for football pricing

Open play shots are up by 2.1 per game and Effective Playing Time is up 1.4 minutes in the Premier League. What does this all mean for football trading – including on crucial player markets? In this edition of Trader’s View, Tom Chard VP – Client Growth, sat down with Steven Arthurton, Dmitri Agapov and Nikola Paunov to discuss the big trends in the opening 3 gameweeks of 2026/27 season – and the impact on pricing, modelling and player betting.

Tom Chard, VP – Client Growth

The new football season brings with it big-money signings, new tactics and fresh storylines for fans to follow.

Chelsea’s three-at-the-back under Xabi Alonso, Hull City’s strong start against-the-odds, and Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United’s early season form is already under the microscope.

In the opening weeks, player shot markets, betbuilder and promotional markets have been front-and-centre of sportsbook products.

On the back of a record-breaking World Cup, I sat down with Genius Sports’ product, trading and live data experts to answer the biggest football trading questions right now – from the impact of rising shot totals to the battle in in-play football UX.

Q: What have been the big takeaways from an action-packed 2026/27 season so far?

Dmitri Agapov, Director of Trading

Shot totals have been sky-high in the opening Premier League gameweeks. The underlying data shows much of this happening in open play, with an average of 20.4 open play shots per game, compared to 18.3 last season.

Across all shots, Manchester United vs Ipswich (42 shots) and Newcastle vs Liverpool (40 shots) top-the-charts so far.

This season’s increase in Effective Playing Time is likely a contributing factor. Our GeniusIQ data shows that the ball is in play for 1.4 minutes longer so far in 2026/27 than in 2025/26. This is following the introduction of new timewasting directives we saw in action at the 2026 World Cup.

 

If shot totals and playing time continue to rise, the biggest implication for traders lies in the pricing of team and player shot markets. Player Shots on Target is among the most popular prop markets across our client base, drawing both recreational and sharp money.

Two minutes of additional Effective Playing Time has seen goals and yellows per game increase slightly on last season, but it’s too early to say if this trend will continue.

To keep shot lines on-point, your in-play model needs to be able to react to these league-wide shifts. By simulating the match every few seconds, using low-latency official data, our approach means the model continuously optimises pricing the moment these totals start to spike in a match.

The end result is removing friction and delays, and of course the highest market uptime.

Q: Have there been any rule changes in 2026/27 that have affected football trading?

So far this season, VAR has once again been an interesting topic of discussion. At the World Cup and now Italy’s Serie A, VAR can be used to review corners. In these instances, corner markets must update instantly because checks can be completed in seconds.

The Premier League opted not to implement this directive, reiterating that only “high threshold” incidents lead to VAR intervention.

Yet there has still been an expansion in VAR’s scope in England’s top tier. Officials can now review second yellow cards, as well as fouls committed before a set-piece when the foul directly leads to a goal, penalty or card.

A red card is hugely consequential to football trading. As soon as a check is underway, we have robust protocols to instantly alert the trading team of a possible VAR and red card risk. The same goes for set pieces, which have become a growing source of goals for many Premier League sides.

Reliable, rich VAR risk states captured in Premier League stadiums mean our team is working with the fastest data.

This process starts well before a check is announced in-stadium. Statisticians are ready to trigger a VAR risk command instantly after an in-game incident. This means we’re ready to suspend pending the result of the review and re-open markets in seconds with new pricing instantly.

Q: With player markets increasingly crucial, how do you model player prop markets in-play?

Steve Arthurton, Senior Product Manager

Our football pricing is generated through one model. Haaland’s Shot on Target markets need to be consistent with Manchester City’s Match Result. Pricing for your main markets and player markets simply shouldn’t be treated separately.

Previously, many operators were left relying on multiple suppliers for data and pricing across these markets. This causes headaches. Separate models means inconsistent pricing, inconsistent settlement and leaves you at risk of sharp money.

The 40+ player markets we offer, main markets, our betbuilder product – MultiBet; and cash-out all sit on our trusted, simulated football model. It means 100% pricing consistency, high market uptime, and a better in-play experience for your customers.

Every price update is driven by Monte Carlo simulations and official Premier League and Serie A data. Our model simulates the outcome of a match millions of times per game to give you the sharpest player market pricing and resulting.

Q: Player markets and betbuilder can make risk management complex. What’s your approach to solving this?

Dmitri Agapov, Director of Trading

We believe that if you’ve got the right trading model and the price is right, then you should offer the market. No sportsbook wants friction and delays within the betting experience, and nor do your customers.

With hundreds of market-types, fast-moving liabilities and added complexity through betbuilder and promotional markets, this is easier said than done.

Our football model enables near 100% market and cash-out uptime – but Edge is where it gets really interesting.

“Hidden liabilities” are no longer hidden. Edge reallocates margin based on your liabilities on a fixture-level, in real-time, meaning your customers can bet on Havertz to have 2+ Shots on Target, Arsenal Clean Sheet or Arsenal to Win – or even combine them within a betbuilder – without bet delays. You get optimised pricing, so all the risk headaches go away.

Edge adjusts pricing incrementally, so your customers don’t see big price jumps. And it means you can keep markets open and remove delays, with total confidence. Last season, Edge grew profit margins by 22% on the Premier League for one operator.

Q: How has Genius Sports advanced its trading for the 2026/27 season?

Steve Arthurton, Senior Product Manager

For the World Cup, we added a new stoppage time feature that dynamically forecasts stoppage time based on real-time breaks in play and competition averages. It continuously adjusts in-play pricing based on predicted match duration.

This is especially important towards the 90-minute mark, when stoppage time is announced. By automating this process, we keep markets updated and protect operators from large odds adjustments in one of the most eventful periods of the match.

During the 2025/26 Premier League season, 95 goals were scored in 2nd half stoppage time, so I’m excited to see the impact it has this year.

Ahead of the 2026/27 season, we added 40+ player markets across pre-match, in-play and MultiBet. We also added promotional markets like Subs Play On and 2-Up, and extended High-Availability Cash-Out (HACO) to every market-type.

High market availability and engaging market-types are the foundation, but how you deliver markets to your customers is equally important.

Betbuilder is one area we’ve focused on. Operators can choose from 40+ player props and main markets to configure pre-packaged betbuilders, both pre-match and in-play, with our PreBuilt feed. It reacts to the live game context, delivering betbuilders linked to what’s happening on the pitch. For one operator, PreBuilt delivered 80% trading margin at the 2026 World Cup.

We provide everything an operator needs for the player betting era. The benefit is maximum pricing accuracy and consistency for all football trading, across pre-match, in-play, betbuilder, cash-out and player markets, with official data – including player market data – from one supplier.

A final word

Tom Chard, VP – Client Growth

Player markets are all-the-talk in the industry when it comes to football.

If you think of a busy Saturday afternoon on the trading floor, the key lies in speed and reliability. With the right data and modelling, your sportsbook can minimise delays, reduce suspensions and create engaging betting markets on every game.

Through our latest football updates, that’s all possible with Genius Sports.